After this week, BVA and Salesforce, in partnership with the Regional Press and Orange, publish their 12th poll of voting intentions in the presidential election. A survey that confirms the momentum of Emmanuel Macron, now tied with the candidate of the Front National in the first round. François Fillon, to which the political committee of the Republicans renewed its support, and resist experiencing a slight rebound. As for Benoit Hamon, he loses two points.
After this week, BVA and Salesforce, in partnership with the Regional Press and Orange, publish their 12th poll of voting intentions in the presidential election. How has the electoral balance of power changed since last week? The dynamics recorded by Emmanuel Macron will he confirm? François Fillon he returns to form?
Macron still growing
The momentum switched on again last week by Emmanuel Macron continues. He is now credited with 26% of the vote. 2 points more in a week and 5 in 15 days. This evolution is explained by 3 concurrent springs: the growing number of rallies to his candidacy, the presentation of his program that generated high expectations and the difficulties of its competitors, in particular Benoît Hamon and François Fillon.
Notably, the electoral base of En Marche candidate! solidifies, even if it remains friable: among his potential voters, 56% say they are now sure of their choice, or 7 points higher than at our last wave.
However, just over 40% of voters can still change your mind and choose another candidate. The electoral base of Marine Le Pen is much more solid and still appears to be increasing: 83% of potential voters are sure of their choice (+5 points since the last wave).
A week after the gathering of the Trocadero and the decision of the political committee of the Republicans, Francois Fillon was able to stabilize the situation: he is credited with 20% of the vote, a score that progresses from one point compared to the end of last week.
If he managed to stem the flight of the LR supporters, he has not yet managed to return all of the voters who had turned to other candidates: 73% of LR supporters say they intend to vote for him, 4 percentage points more than at the height of the crisis, but 3 points lower than before the beginning of the case. Meanwhile, its electoral base also solidifies: three-quarters of its electorate says confident of their choice (+6 points since our last measurement).
Note, however, this indicator increased for all candidates and globally. At six weeks of the first round, voters are increasingly likely to fix their choice of vote: 66% are sure of their choice, an increase of 6 points in a week.
Socialist voters abandoned Benoît Hamon
Benoît Hamon is one who suffers most dynamic Emmanuel Macron. Credited with 13.5% of the vote, he loses 2 in a week. There is a real game of communicating vessels between the two electorates at the expense of the socialist candidate. The Socialist supporters, like some of the great figures of the party, are increasingly likely to turn away from their “natural” candidate to turn to the leader of En Marche, Emmanuel Macron.
Today, only 39% say they intend to vote for Benoît Hamon against 52% for Emmanuel Macron. The report was reversed quickly and brutally: until last week, they were still more likely to want to vote for the candidate nominated by the primary PS and its allies.
Note that Benoît Hamon was the guest of Political Issue Thursday. The survey took place between Wednesday evening and Friday morning; therefore, it does not measure the full impact of that media sequence candidate.
Mélenchon is stable
Benoît Hamon does not lose votes to Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The candidate of France Insoumise remains otherwise perfectly stable compared to our previous measure, credited with 11.5% of the vote.
Macron will beat Le Pen in the second round
The ratio of current electoral strength – it can still change – suggests the possibility of a second round between the Front National candidate and the candidate En March! currently tied in the first round. Emmanuel Macron would prevail then, with 61% of the vote against 39% for Marine Le Pen. If the difference between the two candidates remains very important, however narrows slightly in favor of the president of FN.
This is explained by the evolution of the voters of François Fillon: they are now 31% said they intend to vote blank or invalid in such cases, or 10 points higher than at the last measurement. A score that probably reflects a deep disappointment – if not anger – and the feeling that we somehow their “stolen” election.
Methodology. BVA-Salesforce Survey for Regional Press and Orange conducted online from 8 to 10 March, on a sample of 1419 people on electoral rolls from a representative sample of 1,501 French people aged 18 and older. The representativeness of the sample was ensured by the quota method applied to the following variables: gender, age, profession of the person of the household, region and size of town.