Covid-19: Unanimous Scientific Advice on the Probability of a Second Wave

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Covid-19: unanimous scientific advice on the probability of a second wave

The scientific council is unanimous in saying that a second wave of the Covid-19 should hit France this autumn. And worries about a “relaxation” of the population.

Between assessment, recommendations and projections, four members of the scientific council, including its president Jean-François Delfraissy, made a “progress report” on the evolution of the epidemic of coronavirus in France, Wednesday 8th July 2020, during a press conference.

Bruno Lina, Franck Chauvin, Laetitia Atlani-Duault and Jean François Delfraissy presented their opinions, their knowledge and their concerns, in all transparency. Against the backdrop of the question everyone is asking: are we going to suffer a second wave in France? Response elements.


A second likely wave, but what scenario?

Professor Franck Chauvin recalled the different possible scenarios. First, the one the country is currently experiencing, number one, which is an epidemic under control. Then the other three. The existence of “critical clusters” as in Leicester, England (scenario 2). The third, with a gradual resumption of the epidemic on a regional or even national level. Then scenario 4 (loss of control of the epidemic) like what the United States, India and Brazil are experiencing.

“There is a high probability that we will witness one of these scenarios in France in the fall,” assures Franck Chauvin. Which? We do not know anything. But all these cases must be anticipated “to better counter them”.

Relying on the history of epidemics

Bruno Lina, he builds on the history of previous epidemics to try to better understand the behaviour of this new coronavirus:

“The old pandemics give us information. They always evolve in waves, and only stop when collective immunity is important. Only then can the virus no longer circulate.”

If history were to repeat itself, France must, therefore, expect an epidemic recovery more precisely “in October or November”.


A “deep relaxation” of the population

For Jean-François Delfraissy, the first objective is to ensure that France remains in scenario 1. However, “it can only hold if the measures of distancing persist”. And what worries the president of the scientific council is to note a “deep relaxation” of the population on these measures. Besides, he warns his fellow citizens:

“Do not believe that we will stay on this quiet pace. The risk of a recovery before the end of summer is still possible! “

Beyond the simple instructions rehashed for months (barrier gestures, wearing a mask, avoiding small closed spaces), for the time being, the anti-virus strategy consists in “identifying the clusters and quickly breaking the chains of contamination”, insists Bruno Lina.

Lower impact

If this approach was not enough, there would be nothing but to seize shields to face the surge. And still, according to Bruno Lina, the tools and means put in place during the first wave “must make it possible to control” the second and thus hope for a “lower-impact”.

The final word goes to the president, Jean-François Delfraissy:

“We are all aware that the health issue is not the only issue. And we will do everything not to set up a new containment.”

As for the future of the scientific council, its mission, which was to end on July 10 with the end of the state of health emergency, should be extended at least until September.

An opinion n ° 8 in preparation
The scientific council will issue its 8th opinion “in the coming days” since its creation. He will officially give his vision on the epidemic on for “the end of summer and beginning of autumn”.

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