The Prime Minister Theresa May has lost her bet. According to the latest official figures, almost final, the Conservative Party lost its absolute majority in Parliament following the early parliamentary elections on the 8th June in Britain. The Conservatives are in the lead, but lost a couple of seats, while the Labor opposition has gained around thirty. A terrible result for the conservative Prime Minister.
Theresa May has indeed lost her bet. Less than a year after the Brexit referendum for the release of the United Kingdom from the European Union, and defending a hard Brexit, had called early parliamentary elections to have a free hand to negotiate with the EU bloc from the 19th June. But Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn, holding the left wing of the party and who led a successful campaign has thwarted those plans.
Latest estimates on Thursday morning, credit the Tories with 319 seats, against 330 in the outgoing parliament, while the Labor Jeremy Corbyn gained seats, with 261. On the left, the Scottish nationalist SNP also wiped losses with 35 seats, against 56 previously. The Liberal Democrats, openly Europhile, gained two seats to 10 mandates, but failed to unite the camp of 48% of Britons who voted against the Brexit.
She therefore lacks 7 seats in the Conservative Party Theresa May for an absolute majority in the House of Commons. For the Prime Minister, such a result would be a terrible disavowal, she who called this early voting for the sole purpose of strengthening its existing majority of 17 seats.
Towards a minority government or a coalition?
The Conservatives can form a government, but in this case, they would need to ensure the timely support of other parties to vote their projects through Parliament. The Unionists of Northern Ireland, close to conservatives, would be a privileged partner.
Such a minority government would however be terribly weakened. The previous final UK dates from 1974 when the Conservatives had already called early elections for the better … lose to Labor. But the minority government of Labor Prime Minister Harold Wilson had held a few months before holding new elections.
The Tories may also try to form a coalition, as they did in 2010 when they were allied with the pro-European centrist Liberal Democrats. A reissue of this coalition is more difficult to imagine this time so the two parties differ on the question of Brexit.
If the Conservatives fail to form a government, a minority or coalition, another scenario is theoretically possible: an alliance between Labor, the Scottish SNP, the Liberal Democrats, who counted 314 seats combined in the projections, with the possible support of the Greens and small regional parties.