“It’s Getting Very Expensive.”. But How Long will the Price of Coffee Continue to Rise?

STRONG COFFEE: In five years, the price of coffee has tripled. It is reaching record levels due to climate change affecting harvesting and an explosion in global demand

Of course I saw that the price keeps increasing. But I need my fix. Especially when I wake up because otherwise, there’s no point talking to me. “Crossed in the aisles of this supermarket in downtown Rennes, Agnès takes advantage of the lunch break to do some shopping. With, in her tote bag, a packet of ground coffee which will allow this “big coffee drinker” to last at least the week. Like this mother, nearly 8 out of 10 French people consume regularly coffee, at a rate of 5.4 kg per year and per person on average. And for all those Arabica or Robusta lovers, this little everyday ritual is starting to taste more and more full-bodied.

The second most consumed drink in the world after water, coffee, whose international day is celebrated this Wednesday, is no exception to inflation. Sold ground, in grains, in pods or capsules, it is even one of the products whose price has skyrocketed the most in recent years. “There have always been increases in the history of coffee but this generally lasted six months or a year maximum”, analyzes Loïc Marion, president from the Café Collective. Whereas here, prices have continued to soar since 2021. ”

“We have been seriously lacking coffee since 2021”

On that date, a kilo of standard Arabica was trading between 2 and 2.50 euros. Five years later, world prices have soared: the price of a kilo has tripled to reach 7 euros. Which of course has repercussions on the shelves but also at the counter, where the price espresso regularly exceeds 2 euros. “I don’t drink a lot of it and I prefer to eat it at the bar but it’s true that at that price, I understand that some people prefer to drink their coffee at home”, says Houcine, installed on a terrace of the Place Sainte-Anne, still in Rennes. At a neighboring table, Oriane admits to having reduced her caffeine consumption because it’s getting very expensive, especially since I’m a student. ”

If prices are reaching record levels all over the planet, it is because “there has been a severe shortage of coffee since 2021”, underlines Loïc Marion, whose collective brings together 180 members, mainly roasters. In question, climate change which generally affects production. In 2024, the drought that hit Brazil and the typhoons that swept through Vietnam, the two main producing countries, caused stocks to plunge further. At the same time, global consumption continues to increase, particularly in Asia. “The Chinese and Indians are starting to appreciate coffee, so this gap between supply and demand mechanically increases prices”, says the Bordeaux roaster.

No price drop expected in 2026

But how long will grain prices continue to rise? At the beginning of June, Giuseppe Lavazza, the boss of the Italian coffee giant, predicted “a lull” for 2026 due to very good harvests this year. But for Loïc Marion, the consumer will not yet see the color of it. “We are being told of big production, but stocks are so low and global demand so strong that prices are not expected to fall next year”, he warns. We should still be on an increase even if it should not be strong. ”

According to him, we will rather have to wait “five or ten years” before returning to “more reasonable” prices, with a sharp increase in production expected in China.

Specialty coffee is gaining ground

In the meantime, customers will continue to pay a high price for their cup. “Anyway, everything has increased, whether it’s coffee or something else”, says Myriam, who now compares prices per kilo between brands. “But I only buy Arabica, I don’t want to drink sock juice”, she smiles. In a market largely dominated by industrial coffee in France, artisans are focusing on quality with their specialty coffee, two to three times more expensive than coffee sold commercially but much tastier and fair trade. “France is far behind but it is starting to develop with the boom in coffee shops and the return of roasters”, rejoices Loïc Marion.

Although it only accounts for “6 to 8%” of the French market, specialty coffee is gaining ground every day, and this increase in grain prices does not seem to be slowing down this momentum. “There is certainly a drop in purchasing power but the French want more and more good coffee and they are ready to pay the price”, assures the roaster. A bit, ultimately, like the trend of drinking less but better for wine.