Demography: There are more deaths than births in France… What will the population look like in 2070?

Crossroads: Discover the demographic face of France fifty years from now… and its consequences

France is experiencing a turning point. The economist François Geerolf noted, based on figures from the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), that the number of deaths exceeded the number of births over one year, between May 2024 and May 2025. A first in eighty years and the Second World War. This crossing of demographic curves comes earlier than expected: it was to operate in 2027 according to the National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED), and in 2035 for INSEE.

But then, what will France look like by 2070? What are the prospects for the population?

More deaths

The natural balance becomes deficit in France. In the report “ Will France’s population decrease? ” from INED (2025), written by researchers Gilles Pison and Laurent Toulemon, this deficit in the natural balance would reach −256,000 around 2060, before stabilizing. The continued increase in deaths is linked to the end of life of the baby boom generation. As for births, they will increase slightly in the next two decades, the researchers project, due to the arrival at childbearing ages of large generations born around 2010.

A French population which is increasing until 2040

Two scenarios, from INSEE and INED, count on a slight increase in the French population until 2040, between 69 to 70 million individuals, thanks to immigration, before a decline to 68 million in 2070.

The first scenario, carried out by INSEE in 2021, is based on a constant fertility of 1.8 children per woman, a constant migratory balance of +70,000 people per year, mortality decreasing on average, at the rate of the 2010 decade.

The second scenario, formulated by INED in 2024, is based on a constant fertility of 1.62 children per woman, a constant net migration of +152,000 people per year, and a slight decrease in mortality.

Shrinking active population

In 2021, those aged 65 and over represent nearly 21% of the French population, according to a study by the’INSEE from 2023. In 2070, these seniors will constitute nearly 29% of the French population.

The oldest segments (75‑84 years old and over 85 years old) saw their weight increase from 9.5% in 2021 to 17.8% in 2070, almost twice as much. As for the active population (20 to 64 years old) it is decreasing, going from 55.4 to 50.9%.

What are the consequences for public finances?

The aging of the French population represents, for those in power, a major structural challenge. Numerous studies and projections, including the 2023 report entitled ” Aging of French society: reality and consequences “, published by the High Commission for Planning, explore its consequences. They invariably result in an increase in public spending to ensure the financing of retirement, the health system and social assistance.

To compensate for the decrease in the active population, tax increases, a freezing – or even a reduction – in the level of pensions, the decline of l’retirement age and the recourse to immigration are the subject of bitter political arbitrations.

According to economist Maxime Sbaihi, author of Empty swings, (L’Observatoire, 2025), three main paths are emerging for countries facing declining birth rates: “procreation, immigration and robotization”.