The market capitalization of French banks could be amputated by a quarter in case of victory by Marine Le Pen in the presidential election, wrote Wednesday in a note Citigroup, where she estimated 20% the chances of the Front National to become president.
“On average, our scenario ‘stressed’ indicates a recovery of 25% lower than current market price”. Analysts at the US bank Citigroup are clear: in case of victory of Marine Le Pen in the presidential election on May 7, the value of French banks would drop sharply.
They also believe that French banks underperform by 5% of their European counterparts since late January and burst “Penelope Gate”, which taints the candidate’s campaign Republicans Francois Fillon and revives political risk backed the Hexagon.
SocGen more exposed than BNP
For Citi, BNP Paribas would be the least exposed while Societe Generale bank would have the most to fear because of its greater exposure to the French economy contrary.
The Front National party has placed the exit of France from the euro area in the heart of its political project and challenges the financial crisis of predictions that could result.