Youth unemployment, job creation, forecasts for 2016 … During his televised speech Thursday, President Hollande juggled the figures.
France in the European average youth unemployment: FALSE Thursday evening in the show “citizen dialogues” , François Hollande denied that unemployment under 25 is greater than five points at the European average. “No, is not true “ , he reiterated on France 2.
According to Eurostat, the youth unemployment rate was in February to 19.4% in the EU, against 24.6% in France a difference of more than five points. The gap is smaller within the euro area where the rate is 21.6%. In France, the figure is 681,000 people. While admitting the mistake of the President, the Minister of Labour Myriam El Khomri argued on Friday morning that “youth unemployment declined in 2015” . This is true in the sense of the employment centre, which has 22,300 young registered unemployed, but is false but for the purposes of INSEE, which has 4,000 more.
100,000 net new jobs in 2015: SOMEWHAT TRUE “In 2015, we created 100,000 net jobs more. For the first time in five years, the French economy has created more jobs than it has deleted “, assured the president.
According to figures from INSEE, private sector companies created in net 82,300 salaried positions in 2015, after three years of destruction. If we add agricultural workers and non-workers, the private sector has even created 114 000 jobs. In total, including the public sector, France has created 158,000 jobs last year. This increase, higher than that of the working population, has helped to slightly reduce the unemployment rate, which stood at 10.0 % end of 2015, in France. This decrease, however, is within the margin of error for the indicator, which is plus or minus 0.3 points.
The Pole indicator employment, however, continued to see unemployment rise, with 88,200 more unemployed in 2015. The difference between the two statistics is explained by the fact that they do not measure unemployment in the same way.
150,000 to 160,000 net new in 2016: POSSIBLE“In 2016, we believe that we can create 150 000, 160 000 additional net jobs” , said François Hollande. For now, forecasts of INSEE published March does not go beyond the 1st half of 2016: the agency expects 63,000 net new all sectors. This would mark a slight slowdown from the two semesters of 2015. Several organizations, for their part, riskier the forecasts for the entire year.This is the case of UNEDIC, unemployment insurance manager, who was counting in February on 103 000 creations in 2016. Meanwhile, the OFCE expects about 230,000 creations over the year. This research institute linked to Sciences Po, however, based on a 1.6% growth forecast more optimistic than the government (1.5%), the European Commission and the IMF (1.3%).
Reversal of the unemployment curve before 2017: UNCERTAIN. The president confirmed Thursday evening that he would not run for a second term if he failed to reverse the unemployment curve. He said he would make his decision “at the end of the year” . “I ask to be judged on the question of unemployment” , he has insisted. But INSEE and Unédic are indicating no significant decline. The two organizations plan down 0.1 metropolis in point to 9.9% instead of 10%. The first half think it will take to achieve this development, the second that it will take one year. The OFCE is more optimistic: the observatory sees unemployment falling to 9.5% by year-end, a level unprecedented since 2012. It states, however, that about a third of this decline will be due to the introduction of the 500,000 new training plan for job seekers, the beneficiaries will not be counted in the labour force.
