Kerosene Shortage, Diesel Prices… Why the French have Reason to Worry about their Summer Vacation

If Emmanuel Macron guarantees that today, the situation is not one of shortage, there is less certainty regarding summer, a period when we use the car much more.

THE supply difficulties hydrocarbons linked to the war between Iran and the United States persist. And in addition to the always high prices fuels, concern is growing about the risk of shortage road or air fuels in the heart of summer.

Friday April 24, 2026, the boss of TotalEnergies Patrick Pouyanné prepared minds to this eventuality by affirming that the world risked experiencing a “era of energy shortage like the one that certain Asian countries are already experiencing, if the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz lasted “another two or three months”.

Words tempered by Emmanuel Macron, assuring that ’”today, the situation does not make us envisage any shortage” while warning against scenarios which on the other hand risk causing “panic behavior”.

What is a shortage?

Since the start of the war at the end of February, the strategic strait of Hormuz, through which usually passes near 20% of world production hydrocarbons, is blocked by Tehran, a blockade reinforced by that decided by American President Donald Trump on Iranian ports.

Under these conditions, the world cannot sustainably do without 20% of global oil and gas production “without major consequences”, estimated Patrick Pouyanné during a conference organized by the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri).

However, a shortage, for petroleum or other products, can be defined as a drop in the availability of products compared to historical or seasonal levels Janiv Shah, raw materials specialist at Rystad Energy, explains to AFP.

Why is summer so worrying?

Since the start of the war, the French government has multiplied reassuring messages. France “still has more than three months of (oil) stocks to overcome possible supply difficulties”, government spokesperson Maud Bregeon recalled on Tuesday.

For now, the figures seem to prove the president and his ministers right: only 4% of French service stations experience disruptions on at least one fuel (petrol or diesel).

But in Patrick Pouyanné’s mind, it’s especially summer that worries.

The period is traditionally punctuated by “the driving season” in the United States and Europe, the great summer migration on the roads, and the influx into airports, which are increasing the demand for oil. However, the war in Iran deprives the world of 11 million barrels oil per day, according to the International Energy Agency. And the prospect of a supply shock draws closer as the conflict bogs down.

Already, several elements indicate a risk of shortage of diesel and kerosene in Europe over the summer, because imports have been reduced from key sources in the Middle East and Asia”, confirms Janiv Shah.

European Commissioner Dan Jorgensen also estimated that the EU was “approaching very quickly” a potential supply crisis, with the risk of a summer marked by “more expensive plane tickets and cancellations”.

An inevitable shortage?

To avoid this summer shortage, France has already said ready to release part of its strategic stocks in case of “volume problems”.

For his part, the European Union revealed its arsenal to face this energy crisis: reinforced monitoring of its kerosene supply, “maximizing” the production of its refineries, “electrification strategy”, to depend less on oil and gas, and promotion of energy sobriety (teleworking, carpooling).

The consumption reduction already constitutes a lever for market adjustment. According to a note from Saxo Bank, rising prices and shortages have already led to a “destruction of demand estimated at 4 to 5 million barrels per day, or about 5% of global demand, mainly affecting Asia”.