Flu: Can the Epidemic Start to Rise Again in January?
The next bulletin from Public Health France, which appears this Wednesday, should give indications on the continuation of the epidemic. Last year, it started to rise again.
The peak may have passed, but the flu epidemic is far from over. In his bulletin of the 7th January, the government agency Santé publique France (SPF), the equivalent as Public Health France, noted that the epidemic peak had been reached around the holidays, at the end of December 2025.
A reason for relief for them hospitals what about people at risk? Not necessarily. Because the agency made it clear that these conclusions are provisional.
A new peak at the end of January?
A first epidemic peak does not mean that the flu will not start to rise again. Antoine Flahault, epidemiologist, develops this idea, based on last year’s scenario: In January-February 2025, after the peak during the Christmas holidays, the second peak was greater than the first. Although it is difficult to predict for 2026, it can also be expected. ”
The professor at Paris-Cité University, attached to Inserm, indeed confirms that a “first peak was reached in the middle of the Christmas holidays”, thanks to “the closure of classes and many businesses”. “As we also saw at Christmas 2024”, he explains.
But at the time, the epidemic started again in the second half of January 2025. Will it be the same in 2026? It is very possible and we will find out soon.
The next bulletin from Santé publique France, which published this Wednesday 14th January 2026, should give an overview of the rest of the epidemic.
The vaccine is 36% effective
“If at the end of January, the epidemic dynamic has not started to rise again, then yes, we will then be able to draw up an almost definitive assessment of the epidemic of this 2025-2026 season. The next few weeks will be decisive in this regard”, explains the professor at Inserm.
In the meantime flu vaccination is still open to everyone until January 31, 2026. Even if the vaccine this year is effective at only 36%, the epidemiologist recalls that it always presents interests, such as reducing the risk of complications of the disease.
“This risk is particularly high in people aged over 65, immunocompromised and fragile people, and pregnant women”, he adds.
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