Heat records for October could be beaten this weekend. According to Meteo France, this phenomenon is linked to global warming.
Several heat records for a mid-October could be beaten on Sunday and Monday. They are part of a series of exceptional events “symptomatic of a trend to global warming,” said Patrick Galois, a forecaster at Météo France.
What explains this exceptional heat?
The anticyclone has shifted towards Central Europe and suddenly the winds that revolve around the high pressure in the direction of clockwise from the south. Air masses increasingly soft back from Morocco and the Iberian Peninsula and arrive in France and shift to Germany, plus a maximum sunshine.
Une #chaleur digne d’une journée d’#été… en plein #automne ! Un dimanche très estival près du #PaysBasque avec jusqu’à 30°C attendus ! pic.twitter.com/JdDicC2HmR
— Météo Villes (@Meteovilles) October 15, 2017
So we will have today (Sunday, October 15) and tomorrow (Monday 16) the temperature worthy of a summer, except on the side of the Mediterranean that exception because when the flow of vehicle south softness throughout the country it brings moisture on the Mediterranean shores including the side of the Languedoc where it will lower temperatures than elsewhere.
Today is expected to reach 30 degrees or slightly more in the Basque Country, we expect 25 degrees in Paris, and it could even do a bit warmer tomorrow. We could break records in Lille with 26 degrees (the previous record was 25 degrees mid-October), in Clermont-Ferrand with 29 degrees (28.8 degrees in 2001).
Cet après-midi, la #chaleur s’impose dans le sud-ouest, et notamment près des Pyrénées avec près de 30°C. pic.twitter.com/F4QrFVNtC6
— La Chaîne Météo (@lachainemeteo) October 15, 2017
In Bordeaux, the warmer would be today with 29 degrees. The previous records date back between cities 1990 or 2001 or even 1921 for stations that have very old records.
Degradation will arrive from Britain on Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday to win the rest of the country, with a temperature drop of 6 to 8 degrees. We will have a more usual sweetness, but without going into the fresh air.
A partir de mercredi, une forte #dégradation est envisagée avec des risques d’#intempéries. https://t.co/vZToSQ13Aw pic.twitter.com/InuStwNkuz
— La Chaîne Météo (@lachainemeteo) October 15, 2017
Does the hurricane that moves over Ireland influence?
Not directly because the heat was already installed before. Hurricane Ophelia is installed off the Azores and back to Ireland. It may have a role during the next few nights, with wind from Brest to Biarritz. But the wind that blows at night limits the cooling, so the temperatures tomorrow night will be remarkably mild in cities like Brest or Biarritz.
Ophelia will be very violent on Ireland, since winds expected tomorrow afternoon in the order of 130 150 km / h and sometimes red vigilance over Ireland. That’s a big storm, which will not have the characteristics of a tropical cyclone.
La structure d’#Ophelia commence à se dégrader à mesure que le vaste thalweg associé à un fort courant-jet interagit avec l’ouragan. pic.twitter.com/Ee8V7nWFRo
— Keraunos (@KeraunosObs) October 15, 2017
Is there a link with global warming?
The fact that often beat the softness of record in October as cold records may be symptomatic of a trend to global warming. It is now several decades that beats heat records sometimes quite old, some dating back to 1921 for Paris, marking the records began in the capital.
The fact that this is Hurricane Ophelia of unusual intensity if not never seen this part of the Atlantic is a marker even more spectacular than the climate moves. We have cyclonic phenomena of this intensity on the Azores, that is not very far from Europe ultimately, it’s a sign.
