EU Settles for Weaker 2040 Climate Target Ahead of COP30

CLIMATE: EU ministers have agreed to a softened 2040 climate target before COP30 in Brazil, aiming for a 90% emissions cut from 1990 levels but with controversial new flexibilities. Learn what changed, why it matters, and the reactions from across Europe.

After nearly 20 hours of tense negotiations in Brussels, EU environment ministers reached a last-minute deal to present a unified climate target at the United Nations COP30 summit in Brazil. The heart of the compromise: an agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 compared to 1990 levels. However, this headline target is softened by substantial new flexibilities that critics say undermine the bloc’s climate leadership.

Why Was the Target Weakened?

The decision came after sharp divisions between member states. Some nations, led by Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary, pushed back against the original proposal, arguing stringent emissions targets would hurt their economies and industrial competitiveness. To win over sceptical countries, ministers agreed to allow up to 5% of each nation’s emissions reduction to be achieved through buying foreign carbon credits rather than making cuts at home. An option to expand this further in the future was also built into the agreement.

Moreover, the start of a new carbon market for heating and transport was delayed until 2028, a key demand from central European states concerned about rising fuel prices.

What Are the Reactions?

EU leaders, including Danish climate minister Lars Aagaard, stressed that setting a climate target is not just about picking a number; it has far-reaching social and political implications. The compromise ensures the EU does not arrive “empty-handed” at COP30, seen as a vital platform for global climate diplomacy and a test of the Paris Agreement’s ambitions.

Environmental groups, however, sharply criticized the move. Many said that letting countries outsource their emissions reductions through credits amounts to “carbon laundering,” weakening the EU’s effective effort and global standing as a climate leader.

What Comes Next?

The agreed target and its flexibilities will be formalized as part of the EU’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted under the Paris Agreement at the COP30 summit. The European Commission will review the target’s implementation every two years, a further concession to hesitant governments. Before the deal becomes legally binding, it must be approved by the European Parliament and further negotiations with the European Council.

What’s At Stake for the EU?

Europe’s policymakers emphasize that the deal, while imperfect, prevents a breakdown in unity ahead of crucial climate talks. Still, the concessions mark a notable retreat from past ambitions, with worries that the EU’s negotiating power and credibility could be diminished at COP30 and beyond.