Turkish Cypriot Election Outcome Pressures Erdogan to Rethink Cyprus Policy

Turkey’s Cyprus Election Setback May Push Erdogan Toward EU Reset

Tufan Erhurman’s landslide win in the Turkish Cypriot elections has reshaped the political map of Northern Cyprus and delivered a major surprise to Ankara. With 63 percent of the vote, Erhurman dealt a serious blow to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s two-state policy for the island and opened the door to a potential reset in relations between Turkey and the European Union.

“The defeat was so big, 63 percent was such a landslide, Ankara was really shocked,” said former Erdogan adviser Ilnur Cevik. Erhurman’s Republican Turkish Party supports the reunification of Cyprus, while Erdogan’s preferred candidate, Ersin Tatar of the National Unity Party, campaigned for permanent partition.

“Ankara had invested all its political weight on the island — sending its vice president five times, alongside multiple delegations of ministers and mayors,” Cevik said. Despite this effort, Turkish Cypriots rejected what many saw as heavy-handed interference from Ankara, fueling voter backlash.

Cyprus has been divided since Turkey’s 1974 intervention, with the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus recognized only by Ankara. The latest election result signals a potential shift away from that decades-old division.

End of the Two-State Push

Analysts say Erhurman’s victory marks a decisive setback for Erdogan’s vision of two separate Cypriot states. “The idea was dead on arrival,” said Soli Ozel of Kadir Has University. “Now it’s officially dead.”

Erdogan’s message of congratulations to Erhurman suggests a pragmatic adjustment. “It shows he’s ready, at least for the moment, to move on,” Ozel said. The response contrasts sharply with that of Erdogan’s nationalist ally Devlet Bahceli, who called for the result to be annulled and for Northern Cyprus to be formally integrated with Turkey.

Former Turkish ambassador Selim Kuneralp said the defeat offers Erdogan a rare chance to pivot away from a policy that has hindered cooperation with the EU and international defense partners.

Opportunity for Renewed EU Ties

The long-running Cyprus dispute has blocked Turkey’s participation in the EU’s €150 billion joint defense initiative known as SAFE. “Everything has been frozen because of Cyprus,” Kuneralp explained. “This result opens a narrow but genuine window for Erdogan.”

Ozel agreed that shifting away from partition could create space for renewed cooperation. “With Russia’s growing assertiveness, bringing Turkey into SAFE makes strategic sense. But so far, Greek and Greek Cypriot opposition has kept Ankara out,” he said.

Changing EU Priorities

Europe’s own priorities may now align with a more pragmatic Turkish approach. “The European Union today is not the one of previous decades; human rights and rule of law no longer dominate its agenda,” Ozel said. “This clears some of the thorns from the relationship.”

Erdogan will likely test these new dynamics when German Chancellor Frederick Mertz visits Ankara later this month. While human rights are expected to stay low on the agenda, expanding defense cooperation will dominate talks. How far Erdogan goes in supporting reunification could determine whether Turkey and the EU finally move past the stalemate that has defined their relations for decades.