Professor Jean-François Delfraissy estimates that the virus continues to circulate, in particular in certain regions, but it circulates at a slow speed.
On the eve of a first weekend away from home for many French people, experts commissioned by the government believe that the epidemic, if it is not over, is finally “controlled” and are considering the continuation of the deconfinement.
“We can say that currently, reasonably, the epidemic is controlled,” said Friday on France Inter Professor Jean-François Delfraissy, president of the Scientific Council responsible for guiding the authorities in the face of the coronavirus crisis.
Jean-François Delfraissy : “On peut dire raisonnablement que l’épidémie est contrôlée. Le virus continue à circuler, mais il circule à une petite vitesse. Surtout, on a tous les outils pour dépister les nouveaux cas.”. #Le79Inter
— France Inter (@franceinter) June 5, 2020
“The virus continues to circulate, in particular in certain regions (…), but it circulates at a slow speed”, he added.
The deconfinement continues
The epidemic has caused 44 new deaths in hospitals in France, bringing the total toll Thursday evening to 29,065 deaths since the start of the epidemic, according to the official balance sheet. The decline continues in intensive care with, to date, 1,163 patients (against more than 7,000 at the peak in early April), or 47 patients less in 24 hours.
On this Mother’s Day weekend, the French, who have been able to find cafes, bars and restaurants in the green areas and terraces in the orange areas since Tuesday (Ile-de-France, Mayotte, Guyana) will be able, thanks at the end of travel restrictions since Monday, go see their relatives, some of whom they have been separated for almost three months.
With the gradual reopening of beaches, museums, monuments, zoos or theatres since this week, while respecting certain rules of distancing or wearing a mask, they will also be able to rediscover the pleasure of reconnecting with forgotten leisure activities.
Four scenarios
In this context of regained freedom and controlled epidemic, the Scientific Council, preparing the continuation, published Thursday a new opinion recommending to prepare for “four probable scenarios” for the coming months, going from an “epidemic under control “To” critical degradation “.
- The first scenario, “the most favourable”, considers only a few “localized outbreaks that can be controlled”.
- The others envisage “critical clusters (foci) letting fear of a loss of control of the chains and contamination” or “a progressive and low-noise resumption of the epidemic, more difficult to identify”.
- The last would be that of a “critical degradation of indicators” for monitoring the epidemic, reflecting “a loss of control” of the latter.
“We think that scenario number one, that is to say control of the epidemic, is the most likely. It is linked both to the consequences of confinement, it is linked to the fact that this virus may be sensitive to a certain form of temperature ”, according to Jean-François Delfraissy.
Pr. Jean-François Delfraissy : “Le scénario 4, le plus grave, c’est celui qu’on ne veut pas voir : faisons tout pour ne pas y arriver. Il serait extrêmement difficile d’avoir un nouveau confinement généralisé.”. #Le79Inter
— France Inter (@franceinter) June 5, 2020
You have to “prepare for all scenarios”
“The first point is to ask everyone and all our citizens, in this optimistic scenario where the epidemic is controlled, to keep a certain number of measures anyway,” he continued. “We must keep the distancing measures and, in my opinion, we will keep them long enough.”
With this uncertainty, the National Assembly examines Friday a bill that would allow both the postponement of the second round of municipal in the event of a resurgence of the coronavirus epidemic and a facilitated proxy vote, if it takes place on June 28th.
We must “prepare for all scenarios”, launched the Minister of the Interior Christophe Castaner by opening the debate.
