With growth of 1.8% in 2016, the British economy has not yet had to suffer the consequences of Brexit. But the opening of negotiations with the EU could mark the departure of many players in the UK finance market to the continent.
“We will probably have a hard brexit. The British can not get what they want. “ Professor of Economics at the University of Paris 1, Christian de Boissieu is affirmative. The first signs of divorce between Britain and the European Union should concern those in Britain. Borrowing by households and businesses fell early this year. “The first sign of the slowdown in economic activity for 2017” , says Boris Glas, economist at rating agency S & P Global.
A big deal
Among the more concerned the financial sector. In the UK, it employs about 2.2 million people, or 7% of employees. “In a scenario of a hard Brexit, the British will lose the financial passport” , says Christian de Boissieu.
This approval enables banks and other financial players to market products and services in other EU countries without being established there. This loss would force banks and other financial players to return to the mainland. HSBC announced it would transfer 1,000 jobs in Paris . And it might not be the only one.
So much so that the European financial centers (Frankfurt, Paris, Dublin, Amsterdam and Luxembourg) are competing for the British. Dublin is pushing itself as a preferred destination due to its language and its low tax rates. But Paris also has a role to play, according to Christian de Boissieu, “because we are the second country in the euro zone and the Paris financial account”. According to RTL , thirty financial companies have already left London and moved to Paris.
The number of jobs at stake will depend on a scenario far from written. Discussions on the starting conditions of Great Britain should take two years. But, says the research group UK in a changing Europe , the likelihood that they fail is also 50%.