Elon Musk Warns of “Agonizingly Slow” Start for Cybercab and Optimus

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has once again tempered investor expectations—this time about the company’s two most ambitious projects: the Cybercab robotaxi and the Optimus humanoid robot. Both are set to begin production soon, but Musk cautions it will start “agonizingly slow” before accelerating to “insanely fast” output.

A New Chapter in Tesla’s Automation Ambitions

Musk confirmed on X that Cybercab production is set to begin in April 2026, marking Tesla’s biggest pivot yet from electric vehicles to autonomous technology. The Cybercab—a two-seater vehicle with no steering wheel or pedals—represents the company’s boldest step toward a fully driverless future.

He explained that since “almost everything is new,” the production ramp will be slower than any model before it. However, Musk also promised that once Tesla’s “unboxed” manufacturing process is refined, production could reach incredible speeds—potentially one vehicle every 10 seconds.

High-Stakes Pivot: Betting on AI and Robotics

Tesla’s massive $1.39 trillion valuation is now largely tied to its success in AI-driven products rather than traditional EV sales. Musk has openly said Tesla will become as much a software and robotics company as a carmaker.

Here’s what the company is targeting:

Cybercab volume production: By 2026
Optimus robot production: Late 2026
Long-term goals: 2 million Cybercabs and 1 million Optimus units annually

The Optimus robot—designed to take on repetitive human tasks—is already being tested inside Tesla factories, performing basic material handling. Musk believes it could eventually outnumber car sales in value.

A History of Production Struggles

Veteran Tesla watchers may find Musk’s warnings unsurprising. The company has faced numerous production challenges in the past:

Model 3 “production hell” (2017): Overruns, missed deadlines, and factory bottlenecks nearly derailed the company’s launch.
Cybertruck (2023-2025): Musk admitted Tesla had “dug its own grave” with its design. Sales reached just 20,000 in 2025—well below the forecasted 250,000.

This track record underscores why many investors are cautious about Tesla’s ability to scale new technologies quickly, particularly when entering uncharted markets like humanoid robotics.

Changing Fortunes in the EV Market

Tesla’s pivot also comes amid a tough period for its core business. The company’s global EV sales fell 8.6% in 2025, with Chinese rival BYD overtaking Tesla as the world’s top electric vehicle seller.

Regional breakdown:

Europe: Down 27.8% year-over-year
United States: Down 7% to 589,000 units

At an internal meeting, Tesla’s VP of AI software warned employees that 2026 would be the hardest year of their lives, citing the challenges of scaling new AI-driven production lines.

Why This Matters

Tesla’s slow ramp-up may frustrate short-term investors, but it reinforces Musk’s long-term vision—merging robotics, AI, and manufacturing to dominate the next wave of automation.

If successful, Tesla won’t just sell cars or humanoid robots; it could reshape the global labor landscape. But if production woes continue, 2026 could test the company’s resilience like never before.