Scientists Warn of Rogue Geoengineering Risks Amid Growing Private Investment and Global Governance Gaps

CLIMATE: As the world faces escalating climate crises, scientists and policymakers are raising alarming concerns about “rogue” geoengineering efforts

As the world faces escalating climate crises, scientists and policymakers are raising alarming concerns about “rogue” geoengineering efforts—unilateral climate interventions that could worsen global and regional climate impacts. Recent reports from the Royal Society and voices from the ongoing COP30 summit in Brazil emphasize the urgent need for globally coordinated governance frameworks to manage risks associated with solar geoengineering technologies.

What is Rogue Geoengineering?

Geoengineering, particularly solar geoengineering or solar radiation modification (SRM), involves techniques like stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) to reflect sunlight and cool the Earth’s surface. While theoretically promising as a climate emergency measure, geoengineering remains highly experimental, and experts warn that deployment by individual countries or private entities without global consensus can trigger unintended and severe regional consequences.

Royal Society Report: Regional Climate Risks of Unilateral Geoengineering

A landmark assessment released by the Royal Society on November 4 highlights the dangers of uncoordinated SRM applications. The report details that deployment confined to specific hemispheres or regions could destabilize global weather patterns:

Northern Hemisphere SAI deployment: May induce prolonged droughts in Africa’s Sahel region, threatening millions with water scarcity.
Southern Hemisphere SAI deployment: Could increase North Atlantic hurricane frequency and intensity, posing catastrophic risks to coastal populations.
Marine Cloud Brightening over Southeast Atlantic: May contribute to Amazon rainforest die-back by disrupting regional moisture transport.
Tropical SAI Deployment: Risks altering Mediterranean rainfall patterns and damaging the stratospheric ozone layer.

Professor Jim Haywood of the University of Exeter, a lead author, stressed, “Solar geoengineering deployment must be scientifically informed, globally coordinated, and internationally agreed upon to avoid exacerbating climate crises.” Professor Sheila Rowan from the University of Glasgow echoed these concerns, warning of serious cross-border impacts from unilateral actions.

Growing Private Sector Interest Sparks Scientific and Ethical Concerns

Private investment in geoengineering technology has accelerated rapidly, exemplified by Stardust’s recent $60 million funding round—the largest venture investment in solar geoengineering to date. Stardust aims for potential deployment by the early 2030s, raising urgent questions about the ethics and safety of commercial climate interventions proceeding without robust governance.

This rapid commercialization drives fears among scientists at institutions like Columbia Climate School. Researchers caution that without international cooperation, SAI implementation risks unintended drought exacerbation, monsoon disruption, and altered storm tracks, ultimately causing more harm than benefit.

COP30 Summit Highlights Governance Gaps and Calls for International Cooperation

The 2025 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) held in Belém, Brazil, has brought international attention to geoengineering governance challenges. The African Ministerial Conference on the Environment reiterated calls for a global non-use agreement on solar geoengineering to safeguard vulnerable regions and promote equitable climate solutions.

The Royal Society report underscores that solar geoengineering should never replace emissions reductions but only serve as a highly cautious supplement. Moreover, abrupt cessation of SRM interventions could trigger rapid temperature rebounds, damaging ecosystems more severely than gradual warming.

For additional context on the political landscape during COP30 and the shifts in climate policy targets, see the coverage on the EU’s weakened climate targets ahead of the Brazil summit.

The Urgency of Coordinated Climate Action

With global temperatures surpassing 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in 2024 for the first time, and current trajectories projecting 2.8°C warming, the pressure to explore alternative climate interventions grows. However, experts urge that without transparent, multilateral governance frameworks, rogue geoengineering efforts risk precipitating new climate injustices and unforeseen environmental disasters.

Meanwhile, transformative climate policies such as those outlined in France’s Green Deal: How Climate Policy is Changing Daily Life for Citizens demonstrate the importance of robust, equitable climate action focused on mitigation and adaptation rather than risky geoengineering shortcuts.