European Natural Gas Prices Surge as Cold Snap and Supply Worries Grip the Continent

European Natural Gas Prices Surge to Two-Month Highs

European natural gas prices have surged to their highest levels in two months, fueled by a powerful mix of harsh winter weather, falling gas storage levels, and renewed geopolitical uncertainty.

As of January 13, 2026, the Dutch TTF benchmark—the European reference price for natural gas—climbed above €32 per megawatt hour, marking a 14% increase over just two days. While the price eased slightly to around €31/MWh by January 14, energy analysts expect more turbulence in the weeks ahead.

Arctic Cold Drains European Gas Storage

A brutal cold snap sweeping across Northern and Central Europe is putting immense pressure on gas demand. Temperatures have plunged to -30°C in parts of Finland, Sweden, and Norway, while much of Central Europe is enduring deep freezes near -10°C.

As heating systems ramp up, gas storage across the EU has dropped to around 54–55% capacity, down from roughly 67% at the same time last winter. Daily withdrawals have spiked to over 330 million cubic metres, raising concerns over whether storage will remain sufficiently stocked through the rest of the season.

“If this cold persists, Europe might face renewed competition for LNG cargoes as countries seek to rebuild inventories by spring,” said one London-based energy analyst.

Carbon Prices and French Outages Add Pressure

Europe’s energy picture is being complicated further by other market forces:

EU carbon emission permits rose to €90.74 per tonne, their highest in more than two years. The high price of carbon credits makes coal power less attractive, prompting more utilities to burn gas instead.
In France, EDF’s Flamanville nuclear plant—representing about 7% of national nuclear capacity—remains offline following storm damage, increasing France’s reliance on gas-fired power generation.

Combined, these factors have intensified demand for natural gas just as supplies are being stretched by the severe weather.

Geopolitical Tensions Cloud Supply Outlook

On the international front, unrest in Iran and concerns about U.S. trade actions have reignited fears of potential disruptions in gas and LNG exports from the Persian Gulf region.

Turkey, which sourced about 13.5% of its natural gas from Iran in 2024, could face knock-on effects if flows are interrupted. Any disruption could quickly ripple through European markets, tightening supply even further.

What’s Next for European Energy Prices?

Despite the recent rise, European gas prices remain about 30% lower than in January 2025—a sign that Europe’s overall supply resilience has improved since the height of the energy crisis.

That said, the situation remains fragile:

Weather forecasts predict a gradual warming trend after mid-January, which could relieve short-term demand.
Yet with storage levels well below last year’s and global LNG supply still stretched, traders are bracing for continued price volatility through February and March.