War in Ukraine: Europe and the United States Face an Explosive Shortage of TNT

CONFLICT: Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, TNT, a key explosive from shells and construction sites, has become rare. A shortage that could last for several more years

The essential

Since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, global DTT production, once abundant and cheap, has experienced a shortage that affects both the civil and military industry, both in the United States and in Europe.
The closure of old factories, environmental constraints and dependence on foreign suppliers have created a bottleneck.
However, the need for ammunition is exploding in the face of Russian rates that the West will have difficulty catching up with despite their new TNT production projects.

The time of the TNT boom seems far away. The global supply of trinitrotoluene, once particularly abundant, has been drying up since 2022 and the Russian invasion of ukraine. In the United States as in Europe, stocks are melting, factory projects are piling up… and both military and civilian projects risk slowing down. Sold at only 1 euro per kilo a few decades ago, TNT has convinced people across borders. But now, therefore, it suffers from a global shortage.

“The main reason for the massive decline of TNT is the production of a carcinogenic, mutagenic and toxic byproduct called “red water”. It comes from the purification process, mainly used in the synthesis of TNT. This “red water” must be treated before its release, which is long and/or expensive”, explains Lukas Bauer, trinitrotoluene specialist at the Louis and Maximilian University of Munich.

This environmental issue led to the closure of the last American factories in the 1980s as well as numerous European installations. On the Old Continent, only one factory remains: Nitro-Chem, located in Bydgoszcz, Poland. “Purchasing TNT from other sources, subject to less strict regulations, has become much more economical”, emphasizes Lukas Bauer. Result: both shores of the Atlantic relied on foreign suppliers, particularly in China, but also in Russia and Ukraine.

From bridges to artillery shells

For many of us, this explosive evokes the symbolic sticks of dynamite from westerns… Or the explosive crates of Vil Coyote, desperately trying to catch up with Beep Beep in Looney Tunes. Nothing really current, then. However, trinitrotoluene “is still used in commercial explosives”, explains British explosives chemist Jackie Akhavan. Across the Atlantic, small quantities of TNT serve as a detonator to trigger ammonium nitrate charges in quarries. Without it, roads, bridges and even buildings see their costs rise.

In Europe, use is mainly military. TNT is used “to make artillery shells, bombs, mines or grenades”, lists Lukas Bauer. It is the main explosive of the most common 155mm artillery shells. Despite its outdated appearance, this material remains widely used. It can be melted and then poured into a mold, where it hardens and takes the desired shape. This is a very advantageous property that few other energetic materials (and even fewer such cheap and easy-to-produce materials) share […] Many compositions have been used for decades, such as Composition B, Amatol or Torpex, notes Lukas Bauer.

A bottleneck

However, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the supply of DTT has dried up while needs have exploded. According to the National Security Journal, Russia and the China have stopped exporting trinitrotoluene to United States. Ukraine has of course turned its production towards its own needs, multiplied by the invasion russian. Poland, for its part, has decided to export massively to kyiv to support its defense. A situation which is causing a bottleneck as the EU has set itself a target of two million shells produced by 2025, far behind Russian rates, estimated at 3.6 million per year.

“Europe has very limited production capacity with Nitro-Chem”, Romain de Calbiac, specialist in defense industries, confirms to Euractiv. Fortunately, “TNT is easily recyclable, which allows some countries to recover this explosive from old shells and reuse it”, explains Jackie Akhavan. Before the war, the Pentagon decommissioned some of its munitions, giving them a second life in the commercial field, explains the New York Times. The US military now retains its old weapons to prevent any weakening of its defense capabilities.

A reverse restart

Worried, Westerners have relaunched projects linked to TNT. In November 2024, the US military awarded a $435 million contract to build a production plant in western Kentucky. On the European continent, Finland, particularly distressed by its geographical proximity to Russia, has launched a trinitrotoluene plant project in Pori. This “crucial project for the security of military supply of the Finland and Europe as a whole”, according to Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen, is expected to cost 200 million euros.

At the same time, the Sweden raised several million to launch the construction of a new TNT production site, and the Greece reactivates its historic Lavrio factory, with the support of the European Union. But these projects are not expected before 2027 at the earliest. “If the war in Ukraine were to continue, or even get worse, more factories might be needed”, slips Lukas Bauer. In the meantime, Western capabilities pale in comparison to those of Moscow, which would produce more than 4.5 million shells per year, according to estonian foreign intelligence.