WEATHER: The Seine in Paris, reached its flood peak on Monday and is expected to begin its decline from Tuesday …
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According Vigicrues, the decline of the Seine may be slow.
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Especially as the weather will spoil: from Wednesday, the rains return to the capital but also in the east and north.
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Vigilance and caution are therefore always in style.
The Seine in Paris reached its flood peak on Monday. A flood that reaches up to 5.85 m, measured at the reference station the bridge of Austerlitz in Paris and remained unchanged since Sunday night. Less than in June 2016 (6.10 m) and far from the historic flood of 1910 (8.62 m). Vigicrues , network responsible for flood forecasting and flood, announced Monday that the decline will start. Can we therefore hope that the difficulties and risks of flooding are behind us?
A slow decrease
If all Parisians will not have to invest in boats to work, the authorities do not shout victory so far. First because it expects a moderate decline from Tuesday. “The lowering of the water level will be very slow, says François Duquesne, director Vigicrues . The decline is expected to take more than ten days. It is in-between: the decline started upstream. The Yonne is the most powerful tributary of the Seine basin, it is in decline, which is positive. But everything will be slowed by the flood that comes from Aube.
The downstream of the Seine monitor
If in Paris, the risk of dramatic flooding seems avoided, other cities around the Seine are monitored. “On the downstream sector in Mantes eg flood is higher than in June 2016 because the level of the Oise was higher at the time, noted the director of Vigicrues. It is feared major flooding. But away from the capital, the area between Le Havre and Elbeuf faces the conjunction of three factors: the flood of the Seine, tidal coefficients that increase (109 atttendu Wednesday and Thursday on a maximum of 120) and a depression that will bring us some rain Wednesday or Thursday. ”
The expected rains from Wednesday
Optimism could be quickly dampened by the weather forecast. “In Paris, for Monday and Tuesday will be a very cloudy, it may be some drizzle, wet atmosphere but no significant rain, reassures Marion Pirat, forecaster at Meteo France . As against starting Wednesday, there will be more pronounced rain. We wait ten millimeters of precipitation. For Thursday, it will be in the form of showers, so less continuous rainfall. This return of the rains may slow the decline. ”
Le temps cette semaine : calme et douceur avant un temps plus agité à partir de mercredi ! https://t.co/PJ6YXUGIIi #meteo #pluie pic.twitter.com/cDAaypf8P5
— Météo-France (@meteofrance) 29 January 2018
According to the director Vigicrues, “these rains should be moderate, but will react tributary of the Seine. This may slow the decline, which will not be continuous slope, we will have quite long stair treads. With why not, again a small rise. “The uncertainty and vigilance are therefore still relevant.
Le temps cette semaine : calme et douceur avant un temps plus agité à partir de mercredi ! https://t.co/PJ6YXUGIIi #meteo #pluie pic.twitter.com/cDAaypf8P5
— Météo-France (@meteofrance) 29 January 2018
Twelve departments orange alert
According to the latest bulletin Vigicrues twelve departments, so the Aube and the Marne remained vigilant orange Monday.
⚠ 12 départements en #VigilanceOrange #Inondation
Restez informés : https://t.co/bbNAHFUEZc & https://t.co/dP0gQu0q2K pic.twitter.com/1qXUlVr8X1— Météo-France (@meteofrance) 29 January 2018
“More generally, the situation is critical on the Great Eastern and Northern regions also affected by the rains in the middle of the week, took Marion Pirat Météo France. The soils are waterlogged everywhere, so rivers may overflow when it rains. “With a risk of further flooding in Lorraine and in the Doubs.
A month of rainy February?
But these rains are unlikely to leave their place in brilliant sunshine early February. “We expect a lull 2 Friday, but on Saturday a new disturbance is possible, we prevent at Météo France. There is really no positive signal. For an anticyclonic situation is not expected in the coming days. “And more broadly, February is wet ad . While it is too early for precise forecasts on the month, “it is winter, so obviously there will be rain, soils being saturated everywhere, we must remain vigilant,” do we insist in Vigicrues.
Even current difficulties
But above all, the consequences of this flood in Paris and elsewhere will not be resolved within hours. Side transport, seven Paris stations RER C, along the Seine, will remain closed at least until the 5th February.
Infotrafic #RERC : Le trafic est interrompu entre Javel et Paris Austerlitz, entre Avenue Henri Martin et Paris Austerlitz, au moins jusqu’au lundi 5 février inclus.
Motif : crue de la Seine.
> https://t.co/LwpQdLQA0e— RER C TRANSILIEN (@RERC_SNCF) 29 January 2018
As for the banks of the Seine under water, it will take at least a few days before you can walk there. All obstacles for those who pass through Paris to work …
In total, 1,500 people had to leave their homes in Ile-de-France, said Monday the police headquarters. About 1,900 customers were still affected by power cuts, less than 700 by gas cuts. “We are well aware that for some people this disruption may be a little long, admits the director of Vigicrues. The hard part is not passed. “
